By Gerald A. Honigman
10/01/2010
An Iranian professor who teaches at a local major university and I have become good friends. I had earlier been invited to speak at his institution, where numerous students from the Middle East attend classes.
We have been discussing the recent events going on in his native land--events which especially pose a very harsh dilemma for Israel. Indeed, things happening in Iran right now make Israel's choices only that much more difficult...
While the courage of millions of Iranians (with tens of thousands taking to the streets despite brutal repression) may eventually lead to the collapse of the current the regime, the latter still has enough support with the folks with the weapons--who have a stake in the Islamic Republic--to also make that possibility very "iffy" as well. So, if Israel waits it out--hoping for an internal solution--who knows when or if that might even occur?
Meantime, Iran is getting closer than ever to becoming a nuclear power--with Israel as its primary target--and openly stated as such. When folks repeatedly and openly speak in terms of another final solution, Jews (many, at least) take them very seriously.
What especially complicates matters is that if Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs think they're going to collapse via an internal revolt and they have become a nuclear power--or even if they "just" have numerous biologically and chemically-tipped missiles (which they surely have...those other weapons of mass destruction that Iraqi Arabs already used on Kurds and probably also on Iranians during their war primarily over Iran's Khuzestan/"Arabistan" province's oil in the '80s)--they will very likely launch their strike against Israel before they collapse to help bring about their deeply rooted Shi'a belief that the chaos that will next ensue will, at long last ( after the massive Israeli retaliation, and so forth), bring their Hidden Imam--the Mahdi--out of hiding, ushering in their own version of the Christian Armeggedon (from the Hebrew, Har Megiddo) and the return of their own Shi'a Messiah.
Now, Iran is a big country with about 73 million people. Geographically, about seventy-five Israels would fit into Iran, and the former's population is about one tenth of the latter's.
The Mullahs have already shown they are willing to sacrifice millions of their own people for their cause--as displayed when young boys were used as living mine detectors and such in fighting Saddam's then Sunni Arab-controlled Iraq.
Waiting, thus, is far more dangerous for Israel than many other folks realize or give a hoot about. Some --myself, for example--could make a good argument showing that Israel has already grossly endangered itself by caving in to outside pressure to not striking earlier while the targeting would have been easier, etc., and so forth.
While no one wants to see innocents on either side die as a result of the Mullahs' deadly, genocidal games, Israel can't afford to take a first hit for both geographic and demographic reasons described above.
Iran will survive a retaliation by the Jewish State--especially because the latter (unlike all of its Arab and Iranian enemies) will try its very best to zero in on military and political targets.
On the other hand, Iran will try its very best to destroy the entire Jewish State and will primarily and deliberately target Jewish population centers...as their Arab soul mates--when it comes to this subject, at least--do.
Alright, my friends. Each of you is now the Prime Minister of Israel. Recall that in 1938, Czechoslovakia was sold out in Munich by its "friends" for an alleged "peace for our time." The world was soon at war anyway, because Hitler had his sights set far beyond the Czechs' Sudetenland.
Given all of this, Mr. Prime Minister, now decide on your course of action for your own sole, resurrected nation--one which requires a magnifying glass to find it on a world globe.
The Quest for Justice in the Middle East
